Extreme weather could cause food shortages and riots, say UK farmers

Research by City University of London has found 60% of farmers believe food shortages could cause civil unrest in the next 10 years. Asked what might cause food shortages, farmers identified “extreme weather events” as the chief risk factor during the survey. More farmers suggested this as the most likely cause of food insecurity, over and above any other causes, including war, trade deals, and rising production costs.

Food and farming alliance Sustain representing just under 100 organisations, worries funding cuts to nature friendly farming in the upcoming budget puts UK food security at further risk.  

Will White, Sustainable Farming Coordinator at Sustain, said:

“This evidence underscores the urgent need to address the threats to food security posed by extreme weather, a consequence of the ongoing climate crisis. The survey highlights what our members have long understood: food security and a healthy planet are two sides of the same coin. That’s why it would be a real mistake for the government to cut its investment in nature-friendly farming in the upcoming budget, which is fundamental to safeguarding long-term food security.” 

The research repeated a survey undertaken in 2023 with ‘food industry experts’ (virtually none of which were farmers). The researchers also noted that, “Farmers are much more concerned about potential collapses in food production over the next few years than the wider expert group are.” 

Experts were more likely to attribute civil unrest to disruptions in the distribution of food, rather than an outright shortage of food. By contrast, farmers were more likely to state the reverse – that disruptions to food production, rather than to distribution, would be the most pressing concern.  

Martin Lines, Arable Farmer and CEO of the Nature Friendly Farming Network (NFFN), spoke to the impacts of extreme weather on farmers: 

"This year has brought unprecedented weather challenges for thousands of farmers. While I don't want to face another year like it, we know we can expect more of this, and worse, in the future. 

The biggest threats to our food security come from climate change and nature loss. Farmers urgently need ambitious support to make their businesses and land healthier and more resilient. Without this they will be unable to cope with the challenges extreme weather will bring. 

Land management schemes have helped me prepare for the future, and be more profitable today, by improving soil health and increasing the amount of nature on my farm. Government needs to invest in these kinds of schemes much more widely as a key part of the solutions toolbox."